This seemed like a good time for the Piton Investment Team to review some “spooky” headlines about the economy and investing in 2026, and to offer thoughts on how or whether the markets are likely to respond.
Piton’s Senior Vice-President of Research, Chuck D. Etzweiler, MBA, CIMA®, CFP®, CMT, explained, “Markets have no shortage of frightening headlines. This graphic asks us to pull the sheet off each ‘monster’ and examine the underlying risk.”
- Oil at $100 can be jarring on any given day, but we need to watch what happens to actual production and oil prices into the future. For more on how the Piton Investment Team contextualizes oil prices, read their entry for October 9, 2026.
- Rising rates and large deficits deserve attention, especially if they push borrowing costs higher. For more on how the Piton Investment Team contextualizes interest rates, read their entry for March 13, 2026. For more on how the Piton Investment Team contextualizes the federal deficit, read their entry for September 18, 2026.
- Inflation also remains a risk, although prices staying elevated is different from inflation accelerating again.
- Elections, like the upcoming mid-term elections, can create uncertainty without telling us, on their own, where markets will go.
Chuck concludes, “None of these risks are imaginary. The point is that a headline alone does not establish a recession or justify abandoning a long-term investment plan. We will keep testing each concern against the economic data, company earnings, and our recession dashboard. If that evidence changes, we will respond. Until then, we should give the facts more weight than the fear.”