The Piton Investment Team always strives to keep the timeline of clients’ needs in mind as they steward Piton portfolios. Individual clients have time-sensitive needs and should work with their Wealth Advisor about the best ways for cash flow to meet those needs. For the Piton Investment Team, the timeline of client needs is one key reason that they routinely research projections one or more years ahead when considering what, if any, adjustments are in order for client portfolios now. No projection or expectation represents a certainty about the future, of course, but the Team believes that staying informed about the expectations of investors and experts contributes to making more prudent decisions.
One specific example is the potential impact of oil prices. Oil prices are notably volatile, and fuel prices are a very visible correlate of those prices. As petroleum products run through so many products in the economy, the Investment Team seeks to be aware of when changes in oil prices could sway the cost of business in other areas and thus impact investments in Piton portfolios. The rise in oil prices as a function of the conflict between the United States and Iran understandably generates headlines and concern. In addition to current prices, the Team also monitors the futures, such as can be tracked at
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/CLF28
For example, recently on September 21, 2026, the price of oil was $95, but investors with an 18-month or longer horizon could at the same time consult the futures curve. The January 2028 contract was around $73 on September 21, 2026, roughly $22 below the day’s current price. That suggests traders were pricing the tight oil market at the time as a condition that may ease over time, rather than assuming current prices will persist indefinitely. Futures prices can change and are not a promise of where oil will trade, but the gap offers useful perspective when assessing the longer-term inflation outlook. With January 2028 about 15 months away, it is a guide to that horizon, rather than an exact 18-month forecast. It is also possible to look into trends, such as in this chart:
Again using September 21, 2026 settlement prices, the selected contracts decline from $92.37 for November 2026 to $66.97 for September 2029—a difference of $25.40 per barrel. The bars are spaced roughly six months apart. This downward curve provides perspective on today’s elevated oil price, though futures prices can change and distant contracts may trade lightly. For long-term investors, the curve suggests the market expects current supply pressures to ease rather than persist for years. That offers a reason to be measured about the lasting inflation impact of recent oil spikes. While, futures prices can change and are not a guaranteed forecast of future oil prices, they provide another perspective, from investors and experts who spend much time in this area, which helps the Piton Investment Team evaluate actions to take that can impact the future of client portfolios.